Following years of record growth throughout world markets, wind is now a mature source of commercial power generation, providing ever-larger percentages of clean energy generation. Wind forecasting practices and technologies are a key element of this rapid deployment of wind plants, and also help provide a solution to the increasing need for variable wind generation to integrate effectively on the larger power grid.
Revolutionary changes are underway within the wind forecasting market, with the growing adoption of remote sensing technologies – including sound detection and ranging (sodar) and light detection and ranging (lidar) – that augment traditional meteorological (met) towers and anemometry. As turbine hub heights rise to 100 meters, standard met towers alone will not suffice for the rigorous early stage site assessment campaigns that are the catalyst for eventual construction of a wind plant. Navigant Research forecasts that annual revenue from met towers and remote sensing devices for wind forecasting will surpass $300 million by 2020.
This Navigant Research report examines the market for remote sensing devices and met towers for wind forecasting, as well as disruptive remote sensing-based wind turbine control technology. Market drivers and barriers, along with key technology issues, are examined in detail, and profiles of key industry players, including hardware and service providers, are included. The report also provides market forecasts for demand for and revenue from wind forecasting technologies, segmented by region, through 2020.
Key Questions Addressed:
- What are the main uses and best practices for wind forecasting?
- What are the key differences in practice and hardware use for site assessment forecasting and permanent forecasting at an operational wind plant?
- How are wind forecasting technologies evolving?
- How are grid operators calling upon forecasting to better integrate wind energy?
- How does wind forecasting fit within the broader context of centralized grids, utilities, and traditional generation resources?
- How are remote sensing technologies revolutionizing forecasting?
- Who are the major companies providing meteorological hardware and remote sensing devices and what are the major competitive dynamics in that marketplace?
- What are the expected growth rates and revenue expectations for those hardware suppliers?
Who needs this report?
- Electric utilities
- Electricity grid operators / balancing authorities
- Manufacturers of high-tech sensors and data acquisition equipment
- Manufacturers of wind turbine control systems
- Meteorological hardware manufacturers, software vendors, and consultancies
- Renewable energy project developers
- Government agencies
- Investor community
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Wind Energy Overview
1.2 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Overview
1.2.1 Project Site Assessment
1.2.2 Wind Forecasting Hardware Technologies
1.3 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Competitive Landscape
1.4 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Market Forecasts
2. Market Issues
2.1 Wind Forecasting Trends
2.2 Meteorological Tower Overview
2.2.1 Met Tower Deployment Dynamics: Before Versus After Construction
2.2.2 Current Met Tower Market Dynamics
2.3 Remote Sensing Overview
2.3.1 Sodar Devices
2.3.2 Lidar Devices
2.3.3 Competitive Market Dynamics of Remote Sensing
2.3.3.1 Hardware Providers Partnering to Offer Remote Sensing
2.3.4 Emerging Opportunities for Synergy
2.3.5 Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing Systems
2.3.5.1 Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine Optimization
2.3.5.2 Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine SCADA Operations
2.4 Market Drivers for Wind Forecasting
2.4.1 Dramatic Growth in Global Wind Power Capacity
2.4.1.1 North America and Latin America
2.4.1.2 Europe
2.4.1.3 Asia Pacific
2.4.2 Substantial Grid Integration of Large Wind Capacity Additions
2.4.3 Mandates or Incentives for Wind Forecasting
2.4.4 Anemometer Loan Programs
2.5 Market Drivers for Grid Integration
2.5.1 Regions of the World Where Wind Generation Reaches Above 10%
2.5.2 More Accurate Power Scheduling
2.5.3 Nodal Transmission Markets in the United States
2.5.4 Market Signals and Wind Forecasting
2.5.5 Market-Based Incentives at RTO/ISO/TSOs
2.5.6 Active Real-Time Wind Turbine Control
3. Technology Issues
3.1 History of Meteorological Towers
3.1.1 Basic Principles
3.1.2 Commercial Time Horizon
3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.1.3.1 Cost
3.1.3.2 Efficiency
3.1.3.3 Reliability
3.1.3.4 Scalability
3.1.3.5 Availability
3.2 History of Sodar Devices
3.2.1 Basic Principles
3.2.2 Commercial Time Horizon
3.2.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.2.3.1 Cost
3.2.3.2 Efficiency
3.2.3.3 Reliability
3.2.3.4 Scalability
3.2.3.5 Availability
3.3 History of Lidar Devices
3.3.1 Basic Principles
3.3.2 Commercial Time Horizon
3.3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.3.3.1 Cost
3.3.3.2 Efficiency
3.3.3.3 Reliability
3.3.3.4 Scalability
3.3.3.5 Availability
3.4 Comparison of Key Wind Forecasting Technologies
4. Customer and Market Applications
4.1 Wind Project Developers (Pre-Construction)
4.2 Wind Project Operators (Post-Construction)
4.3 Offshore Wind – Remote Sensing
4.4 Wind Turbine OEMs Offering Wind Forecasting Services
4.5 Wind Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing Devices
4.6 Utility Resource Planners and Managers
4.7 Independent Grid Operators
4.8 Energy Traders
5. Grid Operators and Central Forecasting
5.1 Centralized Wind Forecasting
5.1.1 United States – California Independent System Operator
5.1.2 United States – Electric Reliability Council of Texas
5.1.3 United States – Midwest Independent System Operator
5.1.4 Denmark – Energinet.dk
5.1.5 Spain – Red Eléctrica de España
5.1.6 China
5.1.7 India – Power Grid Corporation of India
6. Key Industry Players
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Hardware Providers
6.2.1 Large Hardware Providers
6.2.1.1 Campbell Scientific
6.2.1.2 FT Technologies
6.2.1.3 Leosphere
6.2.1.4 Lockheed Martin
6.2.1.5 NRG Systems
6.2.1.6 Second Wind
6.2.2 Smaller Hardware Providers
6.2.2.1 Atmospheric Systems Corp.
6.2.2.2 Fred Olsen Ltd. (Natural Power, ZephIR Lidar)
6.2.2.3 Pentalum Technologies
6.2.2.4 Windar Photonics A/S
6.2.3 Other Hardware Providers
6.3 Service Providers
6.3.1 Large Service Providers
6.3.1.1 AWS Truepower
6.3.2 Smaller Service Providers
6.3.2.1 Chinook Wind
6.3.2.2 Energy & Meteo Systems
6.3.2.3 GL Garrad Hassan
6.3.2.4 Global Weather Corp.
6.3.2.5 Mistaya Engineering Inc. (Windographer)
6.3.2.6 V-Bar
6.3.2.7 WindLogics
6.3.3 Other Service Providers
7. Market Forecasts
7.1 Methodology and Forecast Modeling Assumptions
7.1.1 Forecast Modeling Assumptions: Impact of U.S. Policy Cycle
7.1.2 Forecast Modeling Assumptions: Typical Wind Plant Size and Met Tower Use
7.1.2.1 Met Tower Use for Pre-Construction Site Assessment
7.1.2.2 Met Tower Use for Permanent Post-Construction Site Assessment
7.2 Global Wind Power Capacity
7.3 Global Site Assessment Met Tower Demand
7.4 Global Permanent Met Tower Demand
7.5 Global Remote Sensing Demand
7.5.1 Global Sodar Device Demand
7.5.2 Global Lidar Device Demand
7.6 Global Combined Met Tower, Sodar, and Lidar Remote Sensing Revenue
7.6.1 Global Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Met Tower Revenue
7.6.1.1 Global Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue
7.6.1.2 Global Permanent Met Tower Revenue
7.6.2 Sodar Device Revenue
7.6.3 Lidar Device Revenue
7.7 Conclusions and Recommendations
7.7.1 Disruptive Market Potential: Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing
8. Company Directory
9. Acronym and Abbreviation List
10. Table of Contents
11. Table of Charts and Figures
12. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Installed Wind Power Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
- Site Assessment Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Permanent Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
- Sodar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Lidar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Permanent Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Sodar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Lidar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Met Tower Halfway Through Tilt-Up Installation Phase
- Remote Sensing Providing Measurement Above a 60-Meter Tower
- Typical Sodar Device
- Typical Lidar Device
- Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine Optimization
- Annual and Cumulative Wind Energy Development, World Markets: 1983-2012
- Anemometer Wind Sensor
- Lattice-Style Tower Designed For Fixed Operational Use
- Fully Enclosed/Securitized and Trailered Sodar Station
- Typical Lidar Device
- Example of a Floating Lidar Station – WindSentinal by Axys Technologies
- Example of a Lidar Designed for Forward-looking Wind Turbine Control
List of Tables
- Sample of States with Anemometer Loan Programs, United States
- Met Tower SWOT Analysis
- Sodar Device SWOT Analysis
- Lidar Device SWOT Analysis
- Key Wind Forecasting Technologies
- Campbell Scientific SWOT Analysis
- FT Technologies SWOT Analysis
- Leosphere SWOT Analysis
- Lockheed Martin SWOT Analysis
- NRG Systems SWOT Analysis
- Second Wind SWOT Analysis
- Other Hardware Providers
- AWS Truepower SWOT Analysis
- Other Service Providers
- Installed Wind Power Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Site Assessment Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Permanent Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
- Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Permanent Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Sodar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Lidar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Sodar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Lidar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020