A 2030 Scenario

BTM Consult ApS –  A part of Navigant is well known and respected for its long-term projections for wind energy development. The company produced its first assessment of the industry’s growth potential in 1997, in the lead up to the climate change summit where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. BTM’s clients were the European Wind Energy Association and Greenpeace International, who used the company’s forecast in their Wind Force 10 report, published in 1998.

Now, BTM brings its experience and expertise to a new global wind power development scenario. The company’s latest report describes two tracks the global industry could take between now and 2030. The differences between BTM’s high growth and business as usual (BAU) scenarios reflect the political will for action in the ongoing climate debate, and BTM’s assessment of the supply chain’s ability to meet high steady growth.

The report’s projections/figures are supported by BTM’s reviews of: major drivers in the market – and the physical framework conditions for deployment of wind capacity at a large scale. Special assessments of the offshore segment (over the medium term) and re-powering potential are accomplished in the report.

Highlights of this report include:

• Market projections to 2030: (high and business as usual scenarios)
• Major drivers in the global market
• Wind power fundamentials (wind resources, the planning of future grid networks)
• Special assessments of the offshore segment (over the medium term)
• Assessment from the supply side ( from the manufacturing of wind turbines through to the supply chain of components)
• Re-powering potential up to 2030
• Evaluating the CO₂ consequences: avoided by of the installation wind power by 2030

Table of Contents

List of Tables
List of Figures
Abbreviations and Technical Units
Preface
Executive Summary

1. Introduction

1.1   Methodology

1.2   Sources.

2. Wind power market status at end 2008

2.1   Demand side – global market growth in 2008

2.2   Supply side – the global top 10 suppliers in 2008

2.3   Market forecast for development in 2009

3. Scenario approach and assumptions

3.1   BAU scenario – Business as Usual

3.2   High scenario – Political commitment to enabling high growth

4. Global drivers for wind power

4.1   The climate issue

4.2   Security of supply

5. Wind Power Fundamentals

5.1   Wind Resources

5.1.1   Global wind maps

5.1.2   Offshore potential in Europe

5.2   Consumption of electricity – penetration level

5.3   Electricity infrastructure and distance from load centres

5.3.1   Transmission plans for US wind power

5.3.2   Pan-European Renewables Network – the European “Supergrid”

5.3.3   Wind Power Transmission Plan for China

6. Development of offshore wind power

6.1   Market status at end 2008

6.2   Potential market size

6.2.1   Challenges for offshore development

6.3   Offshore forecast up to 2015

6.3.1   Business as Usual forecast

6.3.2   High growth scenario

6.4   Trends in offshore manufacture

7. Repowering potential to 2030

7.1   Introduction

7.2   Repowering potential

8. Wind Power Market – Supply Side

8.1   WTG Manufacturing

8.2   The Supply Chain

9. Scenario projections to 2030

9.1   Introduction to the scenarios

9.2   Forecast from 2009 to 2014

9.2.1   Assumptions

9.2.2   Introduction to scenarios from 2015 to 2030

9.3   Business as Usual scenario – assumptions and regional breakdown

9.3.1   Basic assumptions

9.3.2   Comments on regions and countries

9.4   High scenario – assumptions and regional breakdown

9.4.1   Assumptions

9.5   Conclusions on 2030 projections

10. Wind power’s contribution to CO₂ reduction

10.1   Carbon dioxide emissions from power generation

10.2   Calculation of carbon dioxide emissions avoided by wind power in 2009

10.3   Wind power’s contribution in the context of global climate policies and targets

10.4   Future perspectives for wind power’s contribution to avoid CO₂ emission

10.5   Conclusion on wind power’s role in future carbon dioxide reduction

Appendices

Appendix A: Main figures for projections for BAU and “High”

Index

List of Figures

• The Top 10 suppliers in 2008
• Top Ten suppliers’ market share and presence in 2008
• Forecast for 2009 by world region (cumulative MW installed)
• Driving factors trends and risks in global energy towards 2030
• Global anthropogenic GHG emissions
• CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere and temperature increase
• Map of wind speed extrapolated to 80 min the world
• Map of wind speed extrapolated to 80 m in Europe
• Map of wind speed extrapolated to 80 m in North America
• Map of wind speed extrapolated to 80 in Asia
• ECMWF wind speed data 2000-2005
• Transmission plan to accommodate 400 GW of wind energy (AEP 2007)
• European “Supergrid” (Pan-European Renewables Network)
• Power grid map of China
• Supply chain assessment 2008 – components and materials
• BAU scenario 2009 to 2030 – projection of new annual capacity
• BAU scenario 2009 to 2030 – cumulative capacity
• BAU scenario – distribution by world region
• High scenario 2009 to 2030 – projection of new annual capacity
• High scenario 2009 to 2030 – cumulative capacity
• High scenario – distribution by world region
• How much is 228.7 Million tons of CO₂?
• Avoided CO₂ emission from wind in 2009 – regional distribution

List of Tables

• World market growth rates 2003-2008
• Installed global capacity in 2007 and 2008
• The 10 largest markets in 2008 (annual installed MW)
• The 10 largest markets at end 2008 (cumulative MW)
• Growth rates in the Top 10 markets
• The Top 10 turbine suppliers in 2008
• The Five next in line
• Forecast for wind power development in 2009 (installed MW)
• Forecast for the 10 largest markets in 2009 (installed MW)
• Projected temperature and sea level rise by end of 21st century
• Trends in extreme weather events
• Penetration of wind electricity in national power systems
• US transmission projects up to 2014
• Global installed offshore wind power, 2007 and 2008
• Operating offshore wind farms by end 2008
• Business as Usual offshore forecast 2009-2015 (MW)
• High offshore forecast 2009-2015 (MW)
• Offshore wind turbine manufacturers
• Track record of main suppliers to offshore market
• New offshore turbine designs
• Estimated repowering 2009 to 2030
• The 10 largest repowering markets up to 2030
• Global distribution of wind turbine manufacturers
• Forecast demand and manufacturing capability by region 2009-13 in MW
• Top 15 wind turbine manufacturers’ capability and forecast capacity
• Expansion of supply chain 2006-2009 – key components and materials
• World market growth rate 1999-2008 (annual installed MWs)
• World market growth rate 2009-2020 (BAU forecast)
• Forecast for 2009 to 2014 (Global)
• Forecast for 2009 to 2014 (Americas)
• Forecast for 2009 to 2014 (Europe)
• Forecast for 2009 to 2014 (Asia)
• Forecast for 2009 to 2014 (Rest of World)
• Outline of scenarios – cumulative capacity up to 2030 (GW)
• BAU scenario projections 2015 to 2020
• BAU scenario projections 2021 to 2030
• High scenario projection for 2015 to 2020
• High scenario projection for 2021 to 2030
• Electricity production from the projected 2030 capacity
• Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in electricity generation
• Key figures for CO₂ emission from fossil fuel in electricity generation
• Major wind power markets – production by end 2008 and CO₂ reduction
• Targets for CO₂ reduction in the EU member states
• Value of avoided CO₂ related to wind power generation (BAU Scenario)
• Geographical distribution of wind power capacity 2008 to 2030
• Development of avoided CO₂ emission from wind power up to 2030